Scientific Program

Conference Series LLC Ltd invites all the participants across the globe to attend 2nd International Conference on Natural Hazards and Disaster Management Melbourne, Australia.

Day 1 :

Naturalhazards Congress-2018 International Conference Keynote Speaker Yuriy Kuleshov photo
Biography:

Professor and Academician Yuriy Kuleshov is affiliated with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University. He authored 15 book chapters and 70 papers in peer-reviewed journals. His main research interests are (i) climatology of severe weather phenomena (tropical cyclones, thunderstorms and lightning); (ii) satellite remote sensing for monitoring of severe weather and climate; and (iii) seasonal climate prediction. For lifetime achievements in satellite remote sensing of the Earth's environment he was elected as an Academician of the Russian Academy of Engineering Sciences.

Abstract:

Every year, disasters caused by weather extremes lead to significant losses of life and socioeconomic impacts. From 1970-2012, close to 2 million deaths and US$ 2.4 trillion of economic losses were reported globally as a result of droughts, floods, windstorms, tropical cyclones, storm surges and extreme temperatures alone. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report, the frequency and severity of such hazards is increasing, exacerbating risks to lives and livelihoods around the world, particularly in developing and least developed countries. Improved multi-hazard early warning systems are the most effective way to increase resilience and to adapt to climate change. However, in poor and vulnerable countries, weather data is often unreliable or totally lacking. Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) is an international initiative which aims to significantly increase the capacity for seamless multi-hazard early warning system to generate and communicate effective impact-based early warnings, and risk information for hazardous hydro-meteorological and climate events. Its purpose is to protect lives, livelihoods, and property in Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States. The CREWS coalition is led by France, with support from Australia, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Japan and Canada.  It is being implemented by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), the World Bank, and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). Projects are underway in the Caribbean, the Pacific, West Africa, Burkina Faso, Congo, Mali, Niger and Papua New Guinea to enhance their hydrometeorological warning services combined with improving their emergency plans and operations.

Naturalhazards Congress-2018 International Conference Keynote Speaker M. Manikandan photo
Biography:

M.Manikandan is the Sr. Structural Engineer-1 at Gulf Consult-Kuwait with responsibility for Designing and Construction Consultation of the tall buildings, Colleges, Shopping Complexes, Multi story Car Parks, Hospitals, Bridges and Deep Underground structures by considering the Structural requirements and adequate construct able systems to complete the projects within allocated budget and time schedule. Prior to joining Gulf Consult-Kuwait, M.Manikandan has worked as Structural Engineer at several companies, including RECAFCO-Kuwait, SAEED HADI ALDOOSARY EST-Saudi Arabia, Where he has completed many Precast Structures and treatment plant including the deep underground structures with heavy equipment. Notable he is in the construction industry since past 15 years and has completed many land mark projects in Kuwait as well in Saudi. M.Manikandan is received PhD in Risk Management in International Construction Projects as an External Part time researcher with Vels University Chennai-India,the on March- 2017 and He has been received Civil Engineering Degree from Kamraj University Madurai-India on April, 2000 following that he has received MBA in Project Management from Sikkim Manipal University-India in 2012. His professional interests focus on Construction/Project Management, Structural Management and Risk Management in the construction projects and his current projects include Kuwait International Airport Project ,College of Engineering and Petroleum, College of Science and College of Business for women in the Sabah Al Salim Al Sabah University City, Shadadiya –Kuwait and he has published 50 Papers in International and National Journals and Given many key note speeches about Sky scrapers ,Risk management and constructability’s considerations in the international conferences.

Abstract:

Managing risks in construction projects has been recognized as a very important management process in order to achieve the project objectives in terms of time, cost, quality, safety and environmental sustainability. However, thus far most research has focused on some aspects of construction risk management rather than using a systematic and holistic approach to identify risks and analyze the likelihood of occurrence and impacts of the risks. Aims to identify and analyze the risks associated with the development of construction projects from project stakeholder and life cycle perspectives. This research also found that risks spread through the whole project life cycle and many risks occur at more than one phase, with the construction stage as the riskiest phase, followed by the feasibility stage. This research would conclude that clients, designers and government bodies must work cooperatively from the feasibility phase onwards to address potential risks in time, contractors and subcontractors with robust construction and management knowledge must be employed early to make sound preparation for carrying out safe, efficient and quality construction activities.

A building project is a process where each activity and phase include different risks that should be handled by the project participants. Nowadays, the building market is developing very fast and it is important to deliver the project to the client on time and within the budget, each decision made in the conceptual design phase can have an impact on other phases and bring consequences that could be negative for the building project, assignments in a building project, such as conceptual, preliminary, design development and construction execution has performed by a project participants according to the role, can also be referred to a project or a project task, because it contains the parts that the project teams work on within a company. The risks related to critical events in the project tasks are managed by the project participants according to their responsibilities defined in the contract form. The risks managed in the project tasks are an integral part of the risk existing in the building projects to complete on time and within the budget.

  • Geological Disasters and Earthquakes | Meteorological Hazards | Alarming alerts and Early warning systems | Climate Change | Disaster Risk Management| Global Warming | Coastal Geography
Speaker

Chair

Alexander Trofimov

Scientific council of International Scientific Research Institute of Cosmic Anthropoecology , Russian Federation

Session Introduction

Tony McAleavy

Rabdan Academy, United Arab Emirates

Title: The Competing Pressures Paradigm (CPP): A Conceptual Model for Improving Emergency and Business Continuity Plans

Time : 11:15-11:45

Speaker
Biography:

Tony McAleavy specialises in emergency and disaster management focusing on command and control, multi-agency interoperability and emergency preparedness.  The Competing Pressures Paradigm (CPP) is based on Tony’s experience as both a H.M. Coastguard and Ambulance service officer, and within local government emergency management.  This, combined with research and visual methodology establishes an impactive model that has practical application in the emergency management field.  The model assists emergency and business continuity planners to readily identify complex pressures, illustrating their often competitive nature and, promotes the early development of strategies to either satisfy or satifice their individual requirements to maximise the plan’s effectiveness. 

Abstract:

Disasters and catastrophes are becoming more frequent and devastating in terms of deaths and financial losses.  This requires an ever vigilant approach to enhancing our preparedness for such eventualities.  The two dominant streams of preparedness are the risk and vulnerabilities approaches, which are used in various forms around the world.  This paper focuses on emergency and business continuity planning, a staple of the risk-based approach.  An applied model for enhancing the effectiveness of all-hazards emergency and business continuity planning is presented.

The Competing Pressures Paradigm (CPP) is a conceptual model that combines academic and practitioner best-practice, drawn from emergency and business continuity planning, and visual methodology.  The diagrammatic model draws out 3 core issues, namely legislative (the Law) and organisational compliance (internal and multi-agency) and managerial preferences (the Boss), which are critical to securing plan sign-off.  Planners are required to juggle, and more often than not satisfice rather than satisfy, these diverse pressures in order to secure the necessary authorisations.  However, meeting these requirements does not guarantee that a plan will work in practice.  The CPP encourages greater focus on two critical ancillary but, sometimes forgotten pressures and pro-active strategising to address the competing pressures.  Firstly, the needs of the plan’s end-user(s), which can be overlooked whilst focusing on legislative and organisational issues.  Compliance requires depth and technical language, rather than an action oriented user-friendly approach that can be readily employed under stress conditions.  Secondly, greater focus on the needs of survivors as the primary driver of the planning process which, is required to ensure that the life, property and environment ethos is not over-shadowed by other pressures.  The CPP promotes critical review of and a proactive approach to management of these five competing pressures to engender more effective planning, and ultimately greater response efficacy.

Sudha S Arlikatti

Rabdan Academy, United Arab Emirates

Title: Improvised Peer Networks for Flash Flood Warning

Time : 11:45-12:15

Speaker
Biography:

Sudha Arlikatti has over a decade of private sector experience as an architectural and planning consultant in India and Oman and over 14 years of disaster research and teaching experience in the U.S.A. She is currently an Associate Professor in the Business Continuity and Integrated Emergency Management programs in the Faculty of Resilience at Rabdan Academy, U.A.E. Her research interests include disaster warnings and risk communication in multiethnic communities, protective action decisionmaking, post-disaster sheltering and housing recovery, use of decision support technologies for emergency management, and organizational and community resiliency to natural and intentional hazards. She has published 26 articles in notable disasters, public administration and environmental management journals, 12 book chapters, an edited book and numerous reports. She currently serves as the Vice President (2015-2018) of the Research Committee on the Sociology of Disasters (RC39) with the International Sociological Association.

Abstract:

Statement of the Problem: The floods of 2017 in South Asian countries including India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Thailand, Phillipines and Indonesia are evidence that flood hazards are a serious threat to millions worldwide, claiming approximately 20,000 lives annually. Specifically, expanding our understanding of flash flood warning systems is extremely important because these are unexpected events and increasing due to the climate change phenomena. Methodology & Theoretical Orientation: This study used variables from the Protective Action Decision Model to guide data collection about 316 survivors’ immediate responses to the 2013 flash floods in the hilly State of Uttarakhand in North India. Findings: Results show that official warnings from the police or government agencies and the media were nonexistent in the first days of the disaster. Over half the respondents were at home and their first source of warning were environmental cues like hours of heavy incessant rains, hearing the violent sounds and seeing the river flowing with debris; followed by watching their neighbors and friends evacuate. Less than a sixth of the respondents received face-to-face warnings from other villagers and a few received text messages from family members in the highlands. Surprisingly, very few villagers were injured or lost family members. A majority of the fatalities were tourists from outside the State, there on a pilgrimage. Conclusions and significance: Despite lack of prior flash flood hazard experience, heavy damage to homes and villages, and no official warning messages with details of what to do-- evacuate uphill or downhill, shelter in place, basic survival items to carry and how much of it, information on availability of relief aid services etc., an overwhelming majority evacuated within the first four hours of receiving cues and survived. While most warning and risk communication literature focuses on what government agencies can and need to do, this study demonstrates that community members' traditional knowledge of the terrain, understanding of environmental cues and integration into improvised peer warning networks determined their immediate behavioral responses and ultimate survival and recovery. Recommendations are made on how to integrate these informal networks into government initiated early warning systems.

Speaker
Biography:

Dr Yasser Hamdi’s specialization is in the analysis of the risk associated to hydrometeorology, environmental and climate extremes. He holds a PhD in Civil Engineering from Laval University (Quebec, Canada). He has developed several approaches and tools for the estimation of extreme events on local and regional scales, developed several methodologies and computer softwares that deal with a range of problems in the field of water and environmental engineering. His regional frequency model based on the empirical spatial extremogram creates new pathways for improving the regional frequency analysis to estimate extreme values at a target site. He has built this model after years of experience in research and teaching both in education, research and expertise institutions. He also has a long experience in the use of historical information in local and regional frequency analyses to characterize river and marine flooding hazards and in the frequency estimation of extreme temperature in a non-stationary context.

Abstract:

Methods for characterizing extreme temperatures (ETs) and heatwaves hazards were often used in the literature by applying the extreme value theory but rarely with duration modeling. Systems more susceptible to the ETs have another temperature which we designate herein as the Long Duration Anticipated Temperature. For a modern risk-based approach, knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of occurrence for a given duration and number of exceedances are prerequisites. Yet despite its obvious importance, ETs durations have been often excluded from the modelling. However, the notion of duration is not easily interpretable in a frequency analysis and can even be subtle. Few methods have been proposed in the literature to tackle this issue. The most important contributions propose the Temperature-Duration-Frequency (TDF) concept. However, the relevance of the TDF estimates in relation to a risk-based assessment for Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) is questionable. Indeed, the durations considered in this concept are given in consecutive days while some ETs exceeded a number of non-consecutive days/year are important, as well. Indeed, ETs exceeded non-consecutive d days/year in a future horizon are important for periodic nuclear safety review during the NPP’s life and in design and conception of new equipments. As a matter of fact, the non-consecutive exceedances are nothing else than the annually r-Largest-Order-Statistics (r-LOS). This paper presents a new and more rational approach to estimate a design temperature considering events durations. The approach is based on the set of Temperature-rLOS-Frequency (TrF) curves. The Orange station in southern France is used as a case study. Annual ETs of duration r=1,…,10 non-consecutive-days are used and 10:100-years Return periods are used. These estimates are then used to construct the TrF curves that provide estimates of extreme hot temperatures for a given return period, for various durations of practical interest. Finally, we strongly believe that the probability of high temperatures related failure over an equipment lifetime is an important piece of information an engineer can communicate, if it is associated to the duration of spells.

Speaker
Biography:

Geoffrey Mukwada is an Associate Professor in Environmental Geography and is based at the University of the Free State in South Africa. Professor Mukwada’s research primarily revolves around natural resource management, climate change and rural livelihoods. He has published more than thirty papers in accredited journals. He is the founding coordinator of the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) at the University of the Free State and is the current coordinator of the Living and Doing Business in Afromontane Environments theme of the ARU.

Abstract:

Climate change is posing a threat to ecosystem health in mountain regions. Mountain environments are not only fragile because they are easily be affected by extreme climate conditions but they also provide signals of climatic change and its impact on ecosystem phenology. Based on both vegetation and climate indices, this study assesses how ecosystem phenology within the Namahadi Catchment Area of the Drakensberg Mountains in South Africa has been affected by climate change. In recently published research it had been shown that the variability of ozone concentration in the Pacific Region was responsible for drought occurrence across southern Africa, while it was also revealed that there are sentinel ‘pristine sites’ within the catchment from which the impact of climate change can be effectively assessed. Using climate data from CRU-TS and Landsat images, climate and vegetation indices for the pristine sites were computed and correlation analyses undertake to determine if there was any teleconnections between the variability concentration of ozone in the Pacific Ocean and climate indices and vegetation phenology at the pristine sites. Based on the results, the study concludes that it may be possible to predict drought once extreme signals of ozone concentration have attained specific thresholds in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. This knowledge is important for drought monitoring and disaster preparedness in mountain areas.